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Sejarah dan Politik

Benarkah Pendukung Prabowo Sebarkan Survei Gallup Palsu?

Gambar Perbedaan Survei Gallup Asli dan Palsu

Terdengar kabar bahwa pendukung pasangan Prabowo-Hatta (Prahara) menyebarkan hasil survei Gallup Indonesia Daily Poll yang menyatakan pasangan Prabowo-Hatta unggul suara 52 persen mengalahkan Jokowi-JK yang hanya mendapat 41 persen. Bila benar, ini merupakan peristiwa memalukan dan dianggap blunder fatal oleh tim sukses Prahara.

Seperti diketahui, survey ini dimuat ireport.cnn.com, sebuah kanal atau blog itu berisi pendapat pembaca CNN.com, bukan tulisan wartawan resmi, seperti Kompasiana milik kompas.com. Entah bagaimana heboh link itu berawal. Namun yang jelas, link disebar oleh para pendukung Prabowo-Hatta, seperti para kader dan simpatisan PKS melalui situs pkspiyungan.org. Wakil Ketua Umum PAN Dradjad Wibowo juga tak ketinggalan mem-broadcast message itu ke teman-temannya di BlackBerry Messenger, seperti yang diberitakan merdeka.com.

Tidak hanya itu, pemberitaan link hoax itu juga sempat dilakukan tvOne yang dimuat dalam running text saat televisi swasta itu menyiarkan pertandingan Piala Dunia. Situs CNN akhirnya menghapus tersebut link sehingga link iReport menjadi tidak tersedia (tidak dapat dibuka). iReport ini telah dihapus karena ditandai oleh masyarakat dan ditemukan melanggar Pedoman dan Syarat Penggunaan iReport Community.

Survei Asli Pilpres Amerika Serikat, Obama Vs McCain

Dalam perbincangan di media sosial dan forun, diduga survei aslinya dirilis saat persaingan Pilpres Amerika Serikat antara Obama melawan McCain. Pasalnya, di dalam survei Gallup palsu yang dirilis, masih terdapat kata ‘Obama’ yang sepertinya terlewati oleh si pengunggah.

“by nine percentage point margin, independent join Prabowo coalitions party in believing Obama is likely to win,” tulis survei palsu tersebut. “by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Democrats in believing Obama is likely to win,” tulis survei bertajuk ‘Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President’ yang sampai saat ini masih bisa diakses. (Baca detik.com)

Isi Artikel Survei Gallup Palsu

Berikut adalah isi artikel survey Gallup palsu atau abal-abal hasil modifikasi yang sempat muncul di ireport CNN.


Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo are now about tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, nevertheless, in a June 10-21 Gallup Indonesia Poll, Prabowo leads Joko Widodo 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in 9 July.

Prabowo coalitions party are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in June — 76% say Habiburokman will win — than Joko Widodo Coalitions Party are about Joko Widodo chances (67%). What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Prabowo is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Prabowo coalitions party in believing Obama is likely to win.

Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking of the presidential election over the same period as the June 10-21 Gallup Poll shows Prabowo beating Joko Widodo among registered voters in the Sumatera ,Java,,Kalimantan ,Lombok ,Bali ,NTT ,Papua and Mollucas Region t, while he roughly ties Joko Widodo in Sumatera Region and trails Joko Widodo by a substantial margin in the Java . Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Prabowo is the more likely of the two to win.

Similarly, perceptions of Prabowo’s electability by age don’t exactly line up with his presidential support patterns across the same groups. Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking spanning June 10-22 shows adults aged 18 to 34 to be his strongest support group, giving him a 24-point lead over Joko Widodo, compared with a virtual tie between Prabowo and Joko Widodo among those aged 35 to 54 and a six-point lead for Joko Widodo among those 55 and older.

While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Prabowo and Joko Widodo as the likely winner: 48% predict an Prabowo win vs. 45% for Joko Widodo By contrast, the majority of Indonesian 55 and older say Prabowo will win.

Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking shows women backing Prabowo over Joko Widodo , 50% to 38%, while men prefer Joko Widodo to OPrabowo , 48% to 42%. Nevertheless, both genders are more likely to believe Prabowo rather than Joko Widodo will win the election.

Bottom Line

They say perception becomes reality. At this early stage of the general election campaign, perceptions of who can win are working in Prabowo,s favor, even among older generations of Indonesians who are more likely to back Joko Widodo for the presidency.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1220 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 10-21, 2014 . For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking results on the Prabowo- Joko Widodo race are based on telephone interviews with 2,536 registered voters interviewed June 10-15 and June 21, 2014.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


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